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The experienced trader will tell you that a deep knowledge of racetracks and their peculiarities is the secret to unlocking the lay-the-field conundrum; as they say, fools rush in where angels fear to tread….
There are several different ways you can trade and these vary based on what it is you are trading as odds react differently in different markets:.
This is the term used to describe very short term backing and laying of just a few ticks apart in quick succession to tie in small profits.
It is best done in markets where the price is fast moving and trades will usually only last seconds rather than minutes. An example of this would be to back under 0.
This is the most common method for trading on Betfair and still requires the movement of odds, but at a greater movement of odds, similar to the first example we showed you above.
The risk on this is usually a lot greater as you are usually relying on an event of some significance or a draw out decay in the price to occur. You will have often seen a price decrease close to kick-off in football as punters look to get their money on a particular selection.
Perhaps the biggest thing to consider is that when you trade solely on one market, the commission that you pay is based on your total profit on that market.
So you will pay more commission, and is something to factor into your calculations. Betfair offer such a range of markets, especially in football that essentially offer the same possibilities, but just have a different way of stating them.
And what you will find is that some markets offer better value than others even though they are essentially the same thing. For example, if you lay Correct Scores , , , , that is essentially the same as laying under 2.
However, whilst this is something to be aware of when you gain a greater understanding of trading, it is important to know that the opportunities to profit here are decreasing.
Betfair have developed a cross market matching tool that takes advantage of liquidity in one market and uses it to seed another. This constant sharing of resources between markets acts to make the price more consistent across all markets.
This is used across all football events, but just for a selection of markets. It is unclear how Betfair will look to develop this in the future.
When you first get started on your trading journey, the most important thing is to set aside a bank for trading.
This may sound negative, but it takes time and patience to learn how to trade and there is a good chance that you will lose a lot of your trades whilst you navigate your way through the markets.
It is important that you detach yourself from your initial deposit emotionally as your mindset is vital to long term success.
If you already use Betfair for general betting, look to do that activity elsewhere and keep your bankroll solely for trading.
It makes tracking both your trades and your progress far easier. There is nothing worse than your computer or internet failing and you having to wait to get back online to check a trade.
So a mobile phone where you can scratch a trade in the event of an emergency could be a life saver. In this day and age with a plethora of sports available, it is easy to get over enthusiastic and trade across numerous sports.
All this will do is confuse you, so pick a sport that you understand the most as this will speed up your learning process. Once you become a master of one sport then you can look at other sports , but no sooner.
Youtube videos also are a great way of furthering your knowledge and you can watch videos with various different levels of difficulty if you need a visual example of how to do something.
You could quite honestly write an entire book on different trading strategies, so this is where you need to do the hard work.
There are hundreds of different videos on YouTube, various books, internet guides and discussion forums on the subject. So make the most of it!
One thing to remember is, the smaller the market s you pick to specialise in, the bigger your advantage could be. However, there is less information out there to learn about it.
Pre-race scalping — If you watch a market before a horse race you will notice that prices move in small increments allowing you to trade and make small profits quickly if predict the correct movement.
Profits will only be small from each trade but they will build up! Back to lay horse races — The key to this is to spot horses that will start fast.
You back the horse pre race as near to the off as you can and then lay it once it goes ahead early in the race and the price decreases. Swing trading a horse race — By understanding the markets and how the graphs move you are able to determine price movements and trade large swings in price.
Lay the draw — The most common football strategy. This is done by laying the draw and then re-backing it when the favourite scores and the draw price increases.
Trading team news — Your knowledge of teams has to be spot on and you need to be quick off the mark. But there are lots of opportunities for price movements when a stronger, or weaker starting line up than is expected by the markets is announced.
Twitter is your friend here. If you are a Sportsbook gambler, you will probably be in the mindset of hoping every bet wins and seeing it out to the bitter end.
But in trading, you are largely betting on small price movements rather than results. So if a price starts to move negatively, your number one goal is to scratch the trade, protect your bank and move on.
The overall strategy that you use will be the ultimate factor that determines when you exit your trade. If you are scalping, your exit point will be just a few ticks away from your entry point.
In fact, you will probably be best off placing the potentially winning exit trade straight after your entry has been matched. There are a few reasons why this would be beneficial.
Firstly, it reduces the risk of you losing your discipline and getting carried away, allowing your trade to continue and increasing your risk.
When you place your bet you must wait for all the money ahead of you in the queue to be matched before your bet is taken. But should the price move in a negative direction, have a set about of ticks that you will exit the trade at and stick to it at all costs.
You must work out for yourself what the best value is for you to exit at, but over time you will adjust these figures to ensure you are in profit.
It all depends on the percentage of winning trades you execute. And if it moves in a negative direction for a pre determined number of ticks, get out.
When it is headed in the correct direction, just ensure that that you monitor the graphs and volumes traded so you can spot when the price has settled.
One of the best ways of determining your exit point is to look at your previous bets which you should have recorded. Look for similar trades you have completed, and this will give you a better understanding of how the price moves when you are confronted by a similar scenario.
When making your post trade notes, it always worth monitoring the price to see where it ends up after your trade and adding a comment on whether you was correct to exit at your chosen point.
You will never be right all of the time, but a loss or an imperfect trade is nothing to beat yourself up about. It is a learning opportunity. To help you read the charts and make a decision on where the price is headed, there is software available to buy that analyses the market and calculates the possible upper and lower variations to the price — the support and resistance levels.
But of course, it is important to supplement your reading of the graphs with the research you have conducted on the event and the real time information that you have available which can cause a price to be moved outside of these ranges.
It is important to consider all outcomes when you trade, and a way that you can mitigate the risk is by placing bets on related markets to offset any potential loss if your trade goes against you.
The danger here is that the game could finish However, by placing a small amount on the price, you can minimise any potential loss should a goal not come.
It may be a cautious approach, but your bank balance will show the benefits of caution! Your exit strategy will tie in with your overall balance and predefined tolerance for risk.
You should always use stakes that are even and proportionate to how much is in your overall bank. You should put yourself in a position where your goal is to protect your bank at all costs.
Should you find yourself down to the bare bones of your Betfair balance, the temptation would be to gamble recklessly and win it all back quicker.
But that is the time for increased discipline so you can slowly build it back up. If you are swing trading and sitting in a winning position but you feel that a price will continue to move, you can use the green position you have put yourself in to minimise the potential loss if it moves back against you, while waiting to see how much of a bigger swing you can bag!
You might have all the tools needed to trade successfully: the sports knowledge, a mathematical mind, the equipment, the lightning quick TV feeds etc.
Discipline is vital. Likewise, that gutting feeling when a team scores in the 90th minute and kills your 10 fold accumulator whilst your imagination was already counting the cash.
To trade successfully you must be able to put these feelings to one side and be ice cold and calculated.
Team news is one of the major factors in football trading that will affect the odds of a market. The reason for this is simple, players are everything in football, without them there would be no match.
The easiest way to find out the team news is to do a quick google search of the clubs you are trading, often you can find a written match preview which will mention players suspended or out with injury.
Twitter is a great way to find out the line ups around one hour to 30 mins before a match is due to start.
The In-Play Statistics:. In-play statistics are vital indicators that our trading selections are ready to be entered. Here we will give a rough guide of what you should look out for during a match to see if you should trade it or avoid it.
Trading the match odds market. If we are looking to back a team or lay the opposition we want said team to be dominant on pretty much all fronts.
That means we want them to be attacking more, having more possession and having more shots on goal especially more shots on target.
Another good statistic to have on your side is the corner count, if a team is dominating the corners then they are probably dominating the game.
The exception to the rule is to look at current momentum , if later in a match one team starts to dominate the stats in a period of time say 15 mins minimum then they could be considered for a trade, even if they are still behind on the stats dominance of the total match time.
So for example, say a team has six shots on target to their opponents one and go up. Their opponents then start a comeback effort, having four shots on target to zero but do not score.
In this example, the team up would still lead the shots on target stats six to five on their opponents but the current momentum is clearly with the team looking to make a comeback.
As a result of this the team losing the match would be a potentially viable trade. Trading the goals markets. This is where we have no real interest in team dominance but rather in the total of the statistics.
We are going to chart some minimum values that we like to have before entering a trade below, what needs to be said though is that these can be adapted.
Here are our examples but feel free to try to find what in-play stats suit your entry points. We work our scoring method out based on shots on and off target.
If there is a shot on target it scores one point, if there is a shot off target it scores half a point.
So for example two shots on target and one shot off would be a total score of 2. Six shots off target and zero shots on target would score three points and so on.
Entry points:. Red Cards:. Although not an in-play statistic as such a special mention must be made for red cards. A red card has a huge effect on a game and pretty much eliminates our previous data as the previous data was recorded when eleven players were playing on each team.
We exit games that have a red card there and then, except for one instance - when we are trading the match odds markets and the team we have opposed have gone down to ten men.
In this scenario it is an advantage for our trade, so we can probably take a profit or expect our team will now have more chances to score a goal.
The Odds:. At this point if your shortlisted selection has met all of the above criteria you are all but set to enter a trade.
The last thing you must consider is whether the current odds represent value. Having an edge on the market comes down to one simple factor -.
If you are backing. Are the odds you are backing at bigger than they should be? Or if you are laying. Are the odds you are laying at shorter than they should be?
If the answer to this question is YES then you should enter the trade, knowing that you have done some solid background research and your due diligence.
Your understanding of whether you have found value or not will be determined partly by your own knowledge and experience but there are some ways we can help you to answer this question and we will share those below.
The easiest way to determine value is to test your strategy and record the results. For set and forget style trades where you will lose you full stake on a loss - once you have an idea of your average odds and your strike-rate you will have some idea of what your minimum price should be - your minimum price will be the same odds that represent the same percentage of your strike-rate.
Most of our trades should be above that minimum price and we would therefore make a good profit long term if these figures remained the same.
Use the below odds table to check what odds you would need to be profitable with your current strike-rate. Odds to decimal to percentage chart.
For traditional trading where you will not take a full loss on stake - it is a little trickier to work out but some simple maths will make it fairly easy.
The equation to work out what strike rate you need to be profitable is this:. Here is an example:. We then simply times that figure by , so 0.
The equation example:. The Final Word:. While there are a few other things you can check when Betfair trading, such as weather conditions for example, we feel we have covered the absolutely essential considerations above.
If you do your due diligence and arm yourself in this way when football trading then you will be, pretty much, as well prepared as you can be.